There is little doubt that the entrance of Justin Trudeau into the Liberal leadership race is big news. The media loves him. Why not? He is the son of Canada’s most popular and polarizing Prime Minister, Pierre Trudeau and like his father, Justin exudes charisma and cuts a dapper image, even when he is modeling himself after a Musketeer (I can’t take credit for this comparison alas, it came from here). He’s part of a political dynasty that this country has never had provincially or federally (save for the Bennett’s in BC and the Manning’s) and likely the entrance of Justin Trudeau into the race is exciting news for those hungry for intrigue in Canadian politics.
The question that will occupy politicos and Liberals alike in the coming months until the April 14th 2013 Liberal Leadership convention is this: does Justin Trudeau have what it takes to lead the Liberal party out of third-party status and into the light, back to ‘natural governing party’ success? Below are the reasons why I believe the answer to that question is a resounding, no.
First, let’s leave Justin out of the equation and look at his opponents in parliament. On one side you have Thomas Mulcair, leader of the Official Opposition New Democratic Party. Mulcair is a no-nonsense Quebec federalist who has shown already he isn’t afraid to take on contentious positions (Dutch disease anyone?). He has fashioned a coalition of Atlantic and BC progressives together with Quebec progressives and soft nationalists. Mulcair is actively fashioning this coalition and working to expand and gain traction into the prairies and build up support in Ontario. It will be very difficult to pull votes away from this coalition, which Trudeau will need to do if he wants to break back into old Liberal territory.
On the other side of the aisle you have Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada for the past six years and guaranteed by the Constitution to lead the country into his tenth year in 2016 (as an aside while convention has had majorities call elections after every four years, the Constitution has mandated elections every five years). Harper and his team is a master of labeling. In no time flat he was able to label the past two Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion as “Not a Leader,” and Michael Ignatieff as “Just Visiting” with very little truth to hang off those accusation. Does anybody think he’d have a difficult time labeling Justin Trudeau as “the entitled son, his father’s son, out for himself, inexperienced, hot-headed, or son of the NEP”? There is ample fodder and Trudeau hasn’t even launched his race yet.
In a recent column and in top cynical form, political commenter Andrew Coyne adds another layer to the analysis of Justin Trudeau and his suitability to lead the Liberal Party and it’s something I’ve noted as well. If he has any firm policy stands, few people accept Justin Trudeau likely knows what they are. We know he’s been an advocate for youth, especially the Katimavik program, as well as an advocate for the environment (parliamentary expletives aside) but what else would he stand for? None of Justin’s parliamentary pronouncements nor his public ones give any clue to what he would do regarding the Nexen oil deal, EI claw backs from Canadians living in Atlantic provinces and as Andrew points out, using a deficit to stimulate the economy or reducing it to “reassure financial markets”. On a great many things, mum has been the word thus far.
Justin himself is no dummy (he has a degree in Literature from McGill and a degree in Education from UBC). He is passionate and certainly speaks like a leader at times. He won a difficult riding that many thought would be unwinnable by a Liberal and certainly by a Trudeau. Let’s also not forget that he won the boxing match against Senator Patrick Brazeau and he has a lot of twitter followers. These are all impressive achievements but in my mind, they don’t add up to a successful leader of a major Canadian political party? The missteps he’s made will be easy bull’s-eyes for a Conservative party that has been unafraid to stretch the truth to absurd lengths in the past. The NDP is not likely to give up the gains they have made without a fight, so attack ads from both camps are likely. I’m certain that the governing party already has “separatist” ads in the can just waiting to be released once Trudeau announces his leadership bid this coming Tuesday. With the above standing in his way though, and his apparent inability to watch what he says, he may indeed be the biggest liability the Liberal leadership contest has.
UPDATE: This column has been updated to reflect the submission I made to the Huffington Post Canada. I made some changes and wanted them to be reflected here.
For a characteristically cynical look at Justin Trudeau’s Liberal race check out Andrew Coyne’s article here.
You can read columnist John Ibbitson’s Globe and Mail article here.
Gerald Caplan takes a somewhat parallel look to mine here.
That you link to articles by Coyne and Ibbitson says all I need to know about Trudeau and The Fear of a Liberal Planet. What nobody seems to acknowledge is that the Conservatives can be taken down their own means – a brilliant PR team and disciplined messaging. Trudeau has shown he can knock out both the Conservative party and its media in one blow. What is striking the fear in the concern trolls of the right is that Trudeau might just be the Liberal in a long while who is smart enough to understand the power of messaging.and use it to turn the tables on the Con machine.
I linked Coyne and Ibbitson because they represented some of the most basic mainstream Conservative views on Justin. I provide my own view, which isn’t a left or right view, but what I consider a view based on the trends. Can the CPC be beaten at their own game? Yes. Do the Liberals look like, at the moment, they are anywhere near able to fight a hard battle against the CPC? I don’t see that. They haven’t proven yet that they have a ground game or a policy platform that looks remotely competative. Perhpas, as Coyne said, Trudeau will surprise us. I remain, at the moment, unconvinced that he will.
I have to wonder if this is NDP partisanship speaking here. The articles you linked to were 2 Conservatives, one of whom is a big time Harper cheerleader and the one who gave the dumbest reasons as to why Canadians should support Mitt Romney. The third, Caplan whose articles I enjoy time and again, is a staunch NDP partisan. One thing I’ve had trouble with the NDP with is their common interest with Harper to destroy the Liberals. Too bad, they (Libearls and NDP, that is) need each other to beat Harper.
For openers, that argument of “where’s the beef?” so to speak is perhaps some looking to really nitpick. Stephane Dion and Iggy, for better or worse, had ideas and policies which either no one paid attention to or were torpedoed by the Harpercons’ slogans of “Hug a thug” or “tax and spend” Liberals. There are some who say that perhaps releasing all his policies early in the game is a bad idea, strategically. I happen to agree with that. Right now, he’s got the media’s attention, many love him for whatever reason.
Also, unlike bloggers like us who debate on line and such, most Canadians are completely tuned out of politics and are basically determined to remain as such and happily swallow the kool-aid Main stream media serves up. In reality, Canadians are more interested in what the Kardashians are up to and who they’re sleeping with. The most politically engaged they become is perhaps keeping up with the Jones’s to get a poppy without really knowing why and of course, debate topic is whether or not the paparazzi should’ve published topless photos of Princess Kate or not.
When people around my neck of the woods talk about Justin Trudeau, it’s not so much that he is good looking or so GQ, but also, they feel a sincerity from him that they just don’t see in others. I may add that some of these people in question were some Quebec sovereigntists and yes, a few staunch ga ga for Harper cheerleaders. Whether or not they’d vote for him as PM is another story altogether, but still, he grabs the attention of others. Unlike his father who hated the media and was as anti-social as one can be, Justin Trudeau is out there. Unlike many politicians of any partisan stripe, who prefer to remain in the safety of 150$ / plate rubber chicken and frozen peas black tie affairs, Justin Trudeau actually partakes in community events like park picnics and unlike those who try it, but painfully clear they’re ill at ease, Justin Trudeau actually looks natural at a park bbq or sitting in a local restaurant in Park-X.
Also, he is a fund raising darling. Very important in this day and age, especially after Harper cut the per vote subsidies, which is one reason why the NDP and the Liberals will find themselves needing each other; funding.
As for the Harpercon attack ads, well, even if Mark Carney did decide to run for the leadership and win, Guy Giorno and Jenny Byrne would find horrendous ways of attacking him too. In other words, no one is spared from Harpercon attack ads. The trick is in how to react to them and how fast. Remember that neither Dion nor Iggy reacted right away and by the time they tried to bite back, the damage was done. I had concerns too about macabre cheesy ads that would be more about his father than himself. I’m sure Trudeau and his handlers are aware of this.
Justin Trudeau may not be able to save the Liberal Party. But he is their best chance of doing just that. In other words, if he can’t, no one can. Not even Mark Carney who the Blue Grit faction would love to see run against him.
AS for Thomas Mulcair, he has other problems. The Dutch disease didn’t resonate in Conservative Ontario, despite the fact that Mulcair was addressing Ontario when speaking of it. In fact, most Ontarians, who are conservative (let’s remember which province gave Harper his majority, after all), are all ga ga giddy for the tar sands, believing that somehow the wealth will trickle to them. Yep, hope springs eternal.
Also, he’s trying to walk a delecate tight rope that Mulroney before him tried and failed at and even before then, the SoCreds/Ralliement des Creditistes of the 60s and 70s under RH Thomson and Real Caouette respectively. History is not on Mulcair’s side here. Plus, there’s the Angryphone element of West end Montreal who are a small group but quite a noisy and potent one. Most of them believ e that Mulcair and the NDP are staunch separatists and believe the only reason the NDP won Quebec was because they campaigned here as Bloc lite. There is some truth to that. Those Nationalists who voted them in, on the other hand, are either disappointed that they’re not being enough of a watch dog in Quebec or they only voted for the NDP simply to “rip off the band-aid” the Bloc provided all those years; to expose Quebec to humiliations (Perceived or real) and thus, mounting the sovereignty campaign. Given Pauline Marois’s government being so fragile (coalition of CAQ and Liberal) and they are on the ready to pounce, they would be too Harper friendly and for those reasons, I don’t rule out a return from the Bloc Quebecois here and as for some of those Montreal West end federalist anglo ridings the NDP took from the Liberals, I believe the Liberals will get back whether Justin is leader or not. Don’t get me wrong, I think the NDP will keep a few of those new seats, but it won’t be the sweep like last time.